Luminate, a Nielsen competitor who’ve been releasing streaming charts for a while now, launched their yr finish streaming market evaluation some time in the past and their report – amongst different issues – presents numerous perception into how Star Wars is doing on Disney+. And in additional normal phrases how Disney+ is doing, at the very least in relation to unique streaming content material.
And for the primary time ever we get numbers on this report for exhibits like Skeleton Crew and even The Unhealthy Batch!
As you most likely know Skeleton Crew by no means made both the Luminate or the Nielsen Streaming Charts. Nielsen have lastly launched their charts for the week through which the Skeleton Crew collection finale was launched – and it didn’t make the highest 10 as soon as once more, making it the very first Star Wars reside motion present on Disney+ by no means to crack the highest 10 unique collection charts.
However how unhealthy was it actually? Luminate’s report does embrace numbers for the primary 5 episodes of Skeleton Crew (all of the 2024 episodes) plus numbers for The Unhealthy Batch which launched earlier in 2024. And what do you suppose the #1 unique present on Disney+ was in 2024? And the way does it evaluate with the competitors?
Star Wars in 2024
First, let’s revisit The Acolyte, the Luminate report features a chart that plots watchtime for all of the episodes throughout weekdays and we will be taught fairly a couple of issues from it (word: all figures are US solely and never worldwide!):
Click on to enlarge! Supply: Luminate
So what will we see right here? We see that most individuals truly watch new episodes on the primary two days of launch, i.e. they don’t look forward to the weekend to catch up however watch episodes when they’re launched or quickly after. What you may as well see is that because the collection progresses the preliminary peak is roughly the identical, which, if I needed to guess, might be made up of probably the most hardcore followers who can’t wait to observe a brand new episode. However the decline turns into ever extra precipitous because the collection progresses, which means viewership falls off extra quickly after day 1 and that nearly actually means The Acolyte misplaced an increasing number of of the extra informal viewers, those who don’t watch it on launch day.
However very telling is the steep decline for the collection finale, based on Luminate it misplaced numerous viewers. Its peak just isn’t even 1 million views on day 1.
Additionally, word how low the numbers are, the height for many Acolyte episodes is simply 1.5 million views on launch day. This for a excessive funds collection for a as soon as highly regarded franchise.
Seeing this even probably the most stalwart Acolyte followers ought to perceive now why Disney axed the present.
However how about Skeleton Crew? Because the present by no means made the highest 10 we’ve no charts numbers, however happily Luminate do embrace numbers for the primary 5 episodes (these launched in 2024) of their report. And the numbers are eye opening!
Click on to enlarge! Supply: Luminate
Right here Luminate evaluate the efficiency of Ahsoka, The Acolyte and Skeleton Crew within the first 5 weeks.
And as you’ll be able to see the numbers for Skeleton Crew are simply woeful. Enormously underperforming even the already awful The Acolyte figures. The uptick in week 2 is defined by all of those exhibits releasing greater than episode in week 1, in case you surprise. However as Ahsoka step by step gained watchtime, The Acolyte shed viewers because the collection progressed and one postive factor, if you wish to name it that, is that Skeleton Crew at the very least had fairly steady, even when extraordinarily low, numbers. Which suggests probably the most devoted followers stored watching. A tough estimate is that about 5 million individuals watched every new episode (within the US). The Mandalorian simply had 25-30 million views per episode. Star Wars misplaced 80+% of its viewers on Disney+ in 2024.
What’s much more surprising, at the very least for Lucasfilm and Disney most likely, is that phrase of mouth had actually no impact. Most individuals both appreciated and even beloved Skeleton Crew. Evaluations have been constructive, viewers, most of them, actually appreciated the collection and felt it was enjoyable and entertaining and price your time.
However none of that interprets to higher viewing figures. The explanation for Skeleton Crew’s shockingly low numbers are most likely many. Perhaps most followers don’t want youngsters as fundamental characters, perhaps The Acolyte turned so many individuals away that they didn’t even hassle with Skeleton Crew anymore. What issues is the tip end result: Skeleton Crew is the worst performing Star Wars reside motion collection on Disney+ ever. With lower than 200 million minutes watched for many episodes.
Luminate even have a high 10 of Disney+ unique exhibits. What do you suppose was probably the most profitable unique collection on Disney+ in 2024? Spoiler: not something Star Wars.
Click on to enlarge! Supply: Luminate
Percy Jackson’s numbers can be a bit greater if Luminate had included the primary week of its launch.
To place issues in perspective: Luminate even have an total high 10 unique collection charts for 2024. #1 is Idiot Me As soon as on Netflix with 12.11 billion minutes streamed. The #10 present is Love Is Blind, additionally on Netflix, with 7.38 billion minutes. Disney’s high performing collection, Percy Jackson, solely has 25% of the watchtime the #1 present has. If we add the lacking episode(s) then perhaps 30%.
What is de facto insightful right here is that Luminate even have numbers for older seasons of different exhibits. Ahsoka barely outperforms The Mandalorian, to my shock season 2 of The Mandalorian doesn’t make the highest 10, however season 3 and 1 do, regardless of Luke Skywalker within the season 2 finale. However what this additionally tells us is that each one three seasons of The Mandalorian outperformed model new Skeleton Crew and had most likely nearly about as a lot watchtime throughout all three seasons as The Acolyte and Agatha All Alongside. My guess is that season 2’s numbers are within the ballpark of season 1, so complete watchtime is perhaps 2.1 billion minutes for The Mandalorian throughout all three seasons in 2024.
A whole season of Echo has worse numbers than any two new episodes of The Mandalorian mixed. Echo is by far the worst performing Marvel present on Disney+. Agatha All Alongside, which some individuals would love to border as a “success”, carried out even worse than The Acolyte and is yet one more failure.
And that 5 episodes of Skeleton Crew mixed merely attain the identical complete watchtime as one common new episode of The Mandalorian and barely outperforms season 3 of The Mandalorian, which was launched in 2023, is simply surprising. This tells you ways a lot Star Wars has declined.
The numbers for The Unhealthy Batch are additionally fairly unhealthy. All 47 episodes mixed solely have 923 million minutes watchtime. As soon as once more, that is about what one episode of The Mandalorian will get, unfold throughout three complete seasons right here. Even when 100% of that was spent watching season 3, which had 15 episodes, that’s a median watchtime of simply 61.53 million minutes per episode, in actuality it will likely be a lot much less, as a result of a superb variety of minutes can be spent watching older episodes from earlier seasons. No surprise the collection was nearly actually prematurely cancelled with a tacked on epilogue to in some way give the present a conclusion.
And what about total marketshare in relation to unique content material?
Click on to enlarge! Supply: Luminate
A lot smaller Apple TV+ and Paramount+ outperform their a lot larger rival Disney+. However all of them can’t sustain with Netflix which is simply dominating the unique content material market. In fact the numbers listed below are impacted by the variety of unique exhibits and what number of of them any streaming service will produce.
However it’s straightforward to see why it will likely be prudent of Disney to scale down manufacturing of unique exhibits much more, they actually do nearly noting for the service and it’s their archival content material or issues like Bluey that get individuals to subscribe to the service.
So what can we are saying?
Star Wars is in a deep disaster. The exhibits, overly costly with inflated budgets, have failed on Disney+ in 2024. The merchandise is failing, which was confirmed by Hasbro of their final two earnings reviews. The online game drastically underperformed and was an enormous flop for Ubisoft. Nothing with a Star Wars label on it loved any success in 2024.
So the query about future plans for the franchise turns into ever extra essential. Perhaps the Mandalorian film appeared like a superb wager on the time, when it’s simply their most profitable new character with “Child Yoda” even changing into a popular culture phenomenon for some time. However that was 2019 and 2020. Then season 3 occurred. And the film follows three lengthy years later. Within the meantime Leslye Headland burned down the home with The Acolyte. I nonetheless suppose Lucasfilm is vastly underestimating the detrimental influence of this hateful, poisonous present by a narcissistic showrunner who made the collection all about herself and her household points.
Andor returns to Disney+ in April. It is going to be fascinating to see the way it will carry out. Will it enhance on season 1’s numbers? In that case, then perhaps issues can flip round. If the numbers are even worse then all alarm bells ought to ring over at Disney. As a result of then there’s a actual probability that the franchise may very well finish on account of lack of normal curiosity.
What else: the Luminate report has many extra fascinating charts, they have a look at many extra issues. Of word is how badly Rings of Energy season 2 carried out for Amazon. Whereas season 3 was simply greenlit lately, chances are high if season 3 doesn’t flip the ship round that it might be the final. As a result of season 2 misplaced 60% of the viewership.
Nielsen have additionally launched their 2024 charts, however not like Luminate additionally they embrace licensed content material. And right here issues are much more constructive for Disney. Bluey was probably the most watched streaming present in 2024 with 55.62 billion minutes streamed. As suspected many individuals apparently subscribe to Disney+ for his or her youngsters.
Probably the most watched film can also be on Disney+, evergreen Moana reached 13.03 billion minutes. As soon as once more underlining the truth that most individuals get Disney+ for his or her archive and Bluey and for his or her child centric content material, not any of the originals for the extra grownup market. That Moana outperformed any of the opposite newly launched films on Disney+, like Inside Out 2, is telling.
One factor you be taught from Nielsen is that legacy content material vastly outperforms new unique exhibits. Not one of the total high 10 streaming exhibits are streaming originals, all of them are both licensed or outdated exhibits like Bluey, Gray’s Anatomy, Household Man, Massive Bang Idea or NCIS.
So it’s not all doom and gloom for Disney+. Folks love their animated content material. Bluey is a runaway success. Simply not any of their originals. However it’s actually doom and gloom for Star Wars (and likewise for Marvel on Disney+, fairly frankly). Now the one query is that if they’ll in some way flip the ship round or if Star Wars collection will come to an finish as a result of everybody tuned out. Reviews say numerous exhibits are in growth. However which means nothing. I consider lots will hinge on the efficiency of the Mandalorian & Grogu film and presumably Ahsoka season 2 in 2026. And should you add Hasbro’s current remarks concerning Star Wars I additionally consider the way forward for the Hasbro toy license will depend upon the success of the 2026 content material.
I’m satisfied that Star Wars wants a reset. Not only for the flicks and exhibits. However particularly at Lucasfilm the place principally everybody in cost who’s liable for this mess must be changed. Together with Dave Filoni, he’s very a lot a part of the issue. It’s not simply Kathleen Kennedy who actually must retire. Now. She has mismanaged Star Wars for lengthy sufficient now. Her insane plan to make a Rey film would most likely be the ultimate nail within the coffin. This must cease now, earlier than it’s actually too late. Star Wars is on life assist. And it’s not assured the Mandalorian can save the franchise over again like he did in 2019/20.
